Violent acts in Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Caucasus engulfed the entire Eurasian Region
- The unexpected violent protests in Kazakhstan and the crackdown that followed last week, which saw more than 160 deaths and 6,000 arrests, are part of a larger turmoil.
- It enveloped Eurasia that runs across the great steppe from Central Europe to Manchuria.
- Each of the current crises in Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Kazakhstan might have a specific logic and trajectory of its own, but together they are reshaping the geopolitics of Eurasia.
- Russia, with its geographic spread across Eurasia, is at the very centre of that restructuring.
About Eurasia
- The author argues that the term “Eurasia” is merely a convenient way of referring to what had been Soviet territory.
- Eurasia is the largest continental area comprising 93 countries of Europe and Asia.
- It Covers about 36% of the world’s continental landmass & home to over 5 billion people.
- Collective arrangements like the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Conference of Interaction and Confidence-building measures in Asia (CICA), and China’s Belt & Road initiative (BOR) can catapult the region to a ‘super-continent’.
Broad themes of restructuring
- 5 broad themes for rearrangement of Eurasia
- : The bumpy internal political evolution of Eurasian states,
- : The weaknesses of economic globalisation,
- : The limitations of regional institutions,
- : The constraints on powers to shape the post-Russian space,
- : Russia’s shifting great power relations.
Present Geo-political Situation of Eurasia
- Recent Developments : Increase in geopolitical competition on the Eurasian landmass.
- The geopolitical competition is marked by a weaponization of resource and geographical access as a form of domination, practised by China and other big powers.
- Russian Centrality in Eurasian Geopolitics:
- Russia, with its geographic spread across Eurasia, is at the very centre of that restructuring.
- Moscow’s military intervention in Kazakhstan and its recent negotiations with the US on European security underline the Russian centrality in Eurasia.
- Rising Chinese Interventions: The Chinese willingness and capacity for military intervention and power projection are growing far beyond its immediate region.
- Declining US Influence : American military footprint has shrunk dramatically on the core Eurasian landmass.
- While the U.S. had over 2,65,000 troops under its European command in 1992, it now has about 65,000.
Protest in Kazakhstan & How is Russia getting involved
- The protests that broke out in Kazakhstan on January 2 over a fuel price hike.
- It turned into the biggest political crisis the oil-rich Central Asian country’s leadership has faced in over three decades.
- Dozens of people, including citizens and police officers, have been killed as protests continue to rage in Kazakhstan, the worst street unrest since the country gained independence 30 years ago.
- Thousands have reportedly been arrested in Almaty and of the hundreds injured, at least 60 are in intensive care.
- Peacekeeping forces sent from Russia and neighbouring states had arrived on his request.
- The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) reportedly has about 2,500 soldiers.
About Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
- It is an intergovernmental military alliance (six countries) that came into effect in 2002.
- Its origin can be traced to the Collective Security Treaty, 1992 (Tashkent Treaty).
- The headquarter is located in the Russian capital of Moscow.
- The objectives of the CSTO is to strengthen peace, international and regional security including cybersecurity and stability, the protection on a collective basis of the independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the member states.
- Current CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation and Tajikistan.
Conclusion
- Although Russia is the weightiest actor in Eurasia, it can’t simply reconstitute the former Soviet space unilaterally.
- An accommodation on European security with the West covering areas such as -
- : Ukraine’s independence and neutrality,
- : The de-escalation of the military confrontation in the heart of Europe through arms control,
- : The development of a cooperative agenda on global security.
- The above steps significantly improve Moscow’s chances of leading a new Eurasian geopolitical order.