‘Unwieldy’ first draft at Baku sets 2030 goal of $5 trillion for climate action

• The most prominent feature of the text is an ask of at least $5-6.8 trillion until 2030, as the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, for developing countries to meet their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

Highlights:

• The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) is underway, with its first major draft text released outlining key climate finance negotiations. This text is critical, as it defines potential outcomes for the conference and emphasizes equal voting power among the 190 participating countries.

Setting the Climate Finance Target: New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG):

• The central focus of the initial draft is the proposed New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, a major point of negotiation:
• Proposed Finance Target: Developing countries request a financial commitment of $5–6.8 trillion by 2030. This fund would enable these nations to achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy.
• Role of Developed Countries: Developed nations are expected to significantly increase their contributions to meet this goal and validate global climate finance commitments.

Historical Context and Existing Challenges:

• The NCQG discussions revisit past commitments:
• Previous Target (2009): Developed countries had pledged $100 billion annually from 2020 to 2025, a target that was reached only in 2022.
• Unmet Commitments: Disputes continue over whether developed nations have fulfilled their pledges, with claims of $115 billion delivered in 2022 disputed by developing countries.

Options within the NCQG:

• The draft text outlines various funding options:
• Overall Financial Commitment: A baseline estimate of $5-7 trillion by 2030.
• Adaptation Finance: Separate annual targets for adaptation finance ranging from $215 to $584 billion until 2030.
• Complex Methodologies: Additional funding estimates face challenges due to gaps in data, methodologies, and assumptions used in determining financial needs.

Developing Nations’ Demands and Alliances

• Developing countries, including India, have formed alliances to advocate for fair climate finance:
• Joint Positioning: India, China, and other developing countries are coordinating their demands, pushing for a text that acknowledges unmet commitments and ensures fair distribution of funds.
• Text Revisions: The initial draft has grown in length, reflecting diverse demands but needing streamlining to be actionable.

Expert Perspectives

• Experts highlight the challenges in finalizing a workable NCQG:
• Need for Clarity: Independent experts call for agreement on finance quantity, quality, and timelines that align with developing nations' needs.
• Text Overhaul Required: The draft is currently seen as overly complex and requires substantial reduction to focus on actionable goals.

Prelims Takeaways

• New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
• Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)