UN Population Prospects

Contact Counsellor

UN Population Prospects

  • Latest UN report forecasts that India will surpass China’s population by 2023.
    • Earlier UN Population Prospects (2019) projected that India will surpass China’s population by 2027.
    • Rate of growth of India’s population is faster than that of China.

Learning from China

  • China started its economic reforms in 1978 with primary focus on agriculture.
  • It liberated agri-markets from myriad controls.
  • China’s agri-GDP grew by 7.1 per cent per annum.
  • Farmers’ real incomes grew by 14 per cent per annum with.
  • As people gained prosperity and farmers’ real incomes doubled, poverty fell by half in just six years.
  • Enhanced incomes created demand for industrial products
  • Aim of China’s manufacturing through Town and Village Enterprises (TVEs) was to meet rising demand from the hinterlands.
  • One-child policy
  • China introduced it in September 1980, which lasted till early 2016.
  • It is this strict control on population growth, coupled with booming growth in overall GDP that led to a rapid increase in per capita incomes.

Indian story

  • India’s overall growth story has not been as impressive as that of China, certainly not in agriculture.
  • Market and price liberalisation in agriculture still remains a major issue.

India’s plan of action

  • On population front, situation can be tackled through
  • Effective education, especially that of girl child
  • Open discussion and dialogue about family planning methods.
  • Conversations about benefits of small family size in society.
  • Biofortification of staples
  • Supplying clean and safe drinking water to every household
  • Mid-day meals etc. are all steps in right direction to improve well-being of people.