The shadow war between Israel and Iran

• Iran-Israel shadow war has resulted in a drastic shift in Israel’s policy towards Iran from military cooperation to enemy state.

A shift in West Asia

• 1979 revolution: brought down Shah’s monarchy and turned Iran into a theocratic republic that altered whole region.
• It moved Iran from an American ally to its top enemy.
• For Israel, region’s only nuclear power, Iran became most prominent rival.
• In 1970s, it was ready to supply nuclear missiles to Tehran, now its primary foreign policy objective is stop Iran from getting one.

Octopus doctrine

• Israel has carried out covert operations inside Iran targeting its nuclear and missile programmes.
• Followed Octopus doctrine: hit the octopus at its head, not just at its tentacles.
• Iran responded with drone attacks, targeting compound used by Israeli operatives in northern Iraq.
• If Iran achieves nuclear capabilities, it could alter regional balance of power, which is now in Israel’s favour.
• Obama administration signed 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, which cut off its path towards nuclear capability.
• But Israel and Gulf kingdoms were not happy with the JCPOA (or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
• Reason:
  • In return for limiting Iran’s nuclear programme, agreement promised economic rewards to Iran.
  • It can transform Iran into non-nuclear conventional, mainstream power in West Asia.

Pressure and resistance

• Today situation is more complicated than it was in 2015.
• Iran is facing domestic pressure over its economic woes, but regime will not compromise on its weapons programme or regional policy.
• U.S. wants to address nuclear programme but through talks as it does not want to get stuck in another conflict in West Asia.

Multi-directional strategy

• Iran: Sanctions to be lifted in return for going back to its 2015 commitments.
• It also wants to emerge from crisis economically stronger.
• U.S.: End Iran’s nuclear programme through talks, but it wants a “stronger and longer” deal.
• Israel and Gulf partners:
• Scuttle Iran’s nuclear programme
• Debilitate its military programme
• Build stronger region-wide defences against its proxies
• Contain its rise.
• Israel has come up with multi-directional approach.
• Goal:
  • Escalate shadow war with Iran
  • Forge stronger security partnership with Gulf kingdoms
• It elevates Israel’s role as new security provider in Gulf when U.S. is preoccupied with its priorities elsewhere.

Conclusion

• Rise of a more cohesive anti-Iran axis is a challenge to Islamic Republic.
• Iran is under pressure after Israeli attacks.
• Israel’s repeated attempts have not stopped Iran from enriching uranium nor has derailed Iran’s ballistic missiles or armed drones programme.
• So if nuclear talks collapse, Israel would have to escalate its shadow war further to meet its goals