Taiwan is facing pressure as China’s relations with the U.S. deteriorate

• By formally establishing diplomatic relations with China, Honduras has joined a growing list of countries that have recently switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

What is Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China?

• After World War II: Taiwan was controlled by Japan for half a century until the end of World War II, when it became a part of the Republic of China, ruled by Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang.
• During Mao Zedong: Though the mainland was taken over by Mao Zedong’s Communist forces in China’s civil war, the island remained under Kuomintang control after the war ended in 1949.
• After 1990: By 2021, only a third identified themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese, with most of the rest describing themselves as exclusively Taiwanese.

How has China responded to the increasing tensions?

• Gray Zone Warfare: China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has sent jet fighters, bombers and spy planes on hundreds of sorties near Taiwan in recent years.
• Military Exercises: China conducts military exercises around Taiwan often in response to the presence nearby of U.S. aircraft-carrier strike groups.
• Nuclear Expansion: China has also begun a major expansion of its nuclear arsenal, partly to deter the U.S. from using its own nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan.

Can China invade Taiwan?

• Defense and political analysts generally agree that China’s military, which dwarfs Taiwan’s, could invade and eventually take control, especially if the U.S. and other powers don’t intervene.
• Successful invasion a challenge: A successful invasion would be a challenge, however. China’s military is well-equipped but untested, having not fought a war since a land-based border skirmish with Vietnam in 1979.
• Tough fight by advanced democracies: Even if the other countries don’t get involved, the war in Ukraine provides a template for advanced democracies to cooperate on crippling sanctions against a major power that launches an unpopular war.