Should India review its Myanmar policy in view of the humanitarian crisis?

• The ongoing conflict between Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the military junta in Myanmar has led to a severe humanitarian crisis. The United Nations Security Council discussed this issue on and has suggested that India should review its policy and consider establishing communication channels with the EAOs to aid the affected civilians.

Significance of India-Myanmar Relationship:

• Geopolitical Importance:
  • Gateway to Southeast Asia: Myanmar is a crucial land bridge connecting South Asia to Southeast Asia. Its proximity to India's northeastern states establishes a strategic link, enhancing regional connectivity.
  • Bay of Bengal Connectivity: The shared maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal opens opportunities for maritime cooperation, fostering economic and strategic collaboration.
  • Regional Power Balancing: A strong relationship with Myanmar helps India maintain regional power balance, countering China's growing influence in the region.
• Strategic Significance:
  • Strategically Significant Neighbourhood: Myanmar, a large multi-ethnic nation, is located in a strategically important area, impacting its five neighbouring countries: China, Laos, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India.
  • Neighbourhood First Policy: India's "Neighborhood First" policy emphasizes the importance of a robust, cooperative, and mutually beneficial relationship with Myanmar.
  • Act East Policy: Myanmar is a key component of India's Act East Policy, aimed at fostering economic, strategic, and cultural ties with the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Multilateral Engagement: Myanmar's membership in SAARC, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, and Mekong Ganga Cooperation adds a regional dimension to bilateral relations, aligning with India’s "Act East" policy.

Areas of Collaborative Cooperation:

• Bilateral Trade:
  • Trade Relations: India is Myanmar's fifth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching USD 1.03 billion in 2021-22.
  • Economic Opportunities: Both countries aim to enhance trade, creating opportunities in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, information technology, and energy sectors.
• Energy Cooperation:
  • Myanmar is vital for India's energy security, with an energy investment portfolio of over USD 1.2 billion, making it the largest recipient of India's investment in Southeast Asia's oil and gas sector.
• Investment in Infrastructure:
  • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: This project aims to connect Kolkata port in India with Sittwe port in Myanmar by sea, enhancing connectivity and trade.
  • India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project: This highway will link India’s Manipur state with Myanmar and Thailand, promoting regional integration.
• Strategic Defense Partnership:
  • Military Collaboration: India and Myanmar maintain a close defense partnership, conducting joint military exercises and providing training to the Myanmar Army.
  • India-Myanmar Bilateral Army Exercise (IMBAX): This exercise aims to strengthen military ties and promote closer relations.
• Capacity Building Measures:
  • Developmental Assistance: India has extended USD 2 billion in soft loans and provides developmental assistance tailored to Myanmar's needs, including setting up higher education and research institutions.
  • Disaster Response: India supports capacity building in disaster risk mitigation and strengthening Myanmar's National Disaster Response Mechanism.
  • Humanitarian Assistance: India has provided aid during crises, such as COVID-19 and natural calamities like Cyclone Mora (2017), Cyclone Komen (2015), and the 2010 Shan State earthquake.
• Cultural Connectivity:
  • Cultural and Historical Ties: Shared Buddhist heritage and colonial history strengthen diplomatic relations and mutual understanding.
  • Indian Diaspora: The Indian diaspora, constituting about 4% of Myanmar's population, plays a significant role in the economy through business, trade, and investment.

Key Issues in India-Myanmar Relationship:

• Internal Security Concerns:
  • Porous Border: The India-Myanmar border is poorly guarded and located in an underdeveloped, insurgency-prone region, facilitating illegal activities by terrorist and insurgent groups.
  • Insurgent Groups: Various Indian insurgent groups have established camps in Myanmar's border areas, posing security challenges.
• Free Movement Regime (FMR): While FMR benefits local populations and enhances relations, it has also facilitated illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and arms trade.
• Triangular Power Struggle: Internal Strife: Myanmar's ongoing internal conflict post-military coup has led to persistent civil unrest, with no clear resolution in sight.
• China’s Influence: China, Myanmar's largest investor and trading partner, has solidified its influence through significant infrastructure projects, posing a challenge for India.
• Infrastructure Project Delays: Delays in completing collaborative projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and Sittwe port have hindered economic cooperation.
• Rohingya Crisis: The Rohingya crisis has strained India-Myanmar relations, with security concerns and resource burdens cited by India as reasons for its stance.

Way Forward:

• Strategic Diplomacy:
  • Regulate Free Movement Regime: Effectively manage FMR while preserving cross-border connections, upgrading infrastructure, and formalizing trade at entry points.
  • Engage Multiple Stakeholders: Balance relations with the military government while engaging with pro-democracy stakeholders.
  • Balance China’s Influence: Pursue strategic partnerships and economic collaborations to counterbalance China’s influence.
• Collaborative Instruments:
  • Promote Two-way Trade: Address trade imbalances by diversifying trade relations and exploring new sectors for collaboration.
  • Accelerate Infrastructure Projects: Ensure timely completion of joint projects to boost connectivity and economic cooperation.
  • Enhanced Security Cooperation: Collaborate on counterinsurgency measures, intelligence-sharing, and joint operations.
• Track II Diplomacy:
  • Cultural Exchange: Strengthen cultural ties through exchange programs, joint cultural events, and educational collaborations.
  • Organize Peace Conclaves: Consider hosting a Peace Assembly with Quad and ASEAN representatives to address human rights issues and support regional stability.

Conclusion:

• India and Myanmar have much to gain from each other, forming a reciprocal dynamic that underpins their bilateral relationship. By actively engaging in collaborative efforts and committing to regional peace and stability, both nations can forge a forward-looking alliance.

Prelims Takeaway

• India Myanmar Relations