MONSOON'S TURN

• Southwest monsoon has entered an “active” phase.

Onset on monsoon

• Timing of the monsoon is good as it's the peak season for sowing kharif crops.
• 24 meteorological subdivisions recorded 90% or less of their normal precipitation for June.
• Absence of easterly winds resulted in much of South Peninsula, Central and Northwest India getting localized rain at best.
• Winds from southwest took monsoon clouds to Northeast, causing floods and landslides in North East India
• Formation of a low pressure area over north Odisha and strong westerly winds from Arabian Sea should help sustain current “active” monsoon conditions.

Cause of concern

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can cause concern.
• Many global weather models suggest a “strong negative” IOD developing by August.
• Eastern Indian Ocean waters off Indonesia and Australia turn unusually warm relative to the western part, increasing rainfall activity there at the expense of the subcontinent.
• It can impact monsoon’s performance in the second half of the season.
• IOD’s effects should be offset by prevalence of La Niña conditions.
• Abnormal cooling of eastern Pacific waters, generally favourable for Indian monsoon.

Conclusion

• Wet July and August is what both producers and consumers of food in India need.