- Southwest monsoon has entered an “active” phase.
Onset on monsoon
- Timing of the monsoon is good as it's the peak season for sowing kharif crops.
- 24 meteorological subdivisions recorded 90% or less of their normal precipitation for June.
- Absence of easterly winds resulted in much of South Peninsula, Central and Northwest India getting localized rain at best.
- Winds from southwest took monsoon clouds to Northeast, causing floods and landslides in North East India
- Formation of a low pressure area over north Odisha and strong westerly winds from Arabian Sea should help sustain current “active” monsoon conditions.
Cause of concern
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can cause concern.
- Many global weather models suggest a “strong negative” IOD developing by August.
- Eastern Indian Ocean waters off Indonesia and Australia turn unusually warm relative to the western part, increasing rainfall activity there at the expense of the subcontinent.
- It can impact monsoon’s performance in the second half of the season.
- IOD’s effects should be offset by prevalence of La Niña conditions.
- Abnormal cooling of eastern Pacific waters, generally favourable for Indian monsoon.
- Wet July and August is what both producers and consumers of food in India need.