Milton was an unusual hurricane, but not unexpected. Here's why

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Last Updated14/10/2024

Hurricane Milton, which made landfall near the city of Siesta Key in Florida on Wednesday night, triggered intense rainfall, flooding, tornadoes, storm surge, and strong winds in the area.

Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida on Wednesday night, bringing catastrophic destruction to the region.
With intense rainfall, tornadoes, storm surges, and high winds, the hurricane claimed at least 12 lives and caused severe damage, including power outages for over 3 million people and significant destruction to homes and infrastructure.
It also triggered a 1-in-1000-year rainfall event in St. Petersburg, with over 45.72 cm of rain. Although Milton has weakened and moved into the North Atlantic, its impact lingers across Florida.

Category 5 Storm: Milton rapidly intensified from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 within just 12 hours, reaching wind speeds of 285 kmph. This made it one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic.
Unusual Path: Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico and took an unexpected eastward path, making landfall on Florida’s western coast. Experts have noted the rarity of this trajectory.

Warm Sea-Surface Temperatures: The Gulf of Mexico had sea-surface temperatures nearing 31°C, significantly above the 26°C threshold for hurricane development. The warmer waters provided more energy for rapid intensification.
High Humidity: The warm atmosphere, capable of holding more moisture, intensified the storm's precipitation. Hurricanes become more dangerous with such high humidity levels, contributing to prolonged and heavy rainfall.
Lack of Wind Shear: Wind shear, which can weaken hurricanes, was absent in Milton’s case. This allowed the storm to use the available energy efficiently, leading to its extreme intensity.

Scientists have long warned that rising global temperatures, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, will lead to more intense hurricanes. The Gulf of Mexico's unprecedented temperatures were a direct result of climate change, fueling Milton’s rapid intensification.
The global sea surface temperature has risen by 0.9°C since 1850, with oceans absorbing much of the trapped heat. This warming trend increases the frequency and severity of rapid storm intensification.

Hurricane Milton's rapid intensification aligns with a growing trend. Recent storms like Hurricane Otis (2023), Hurricane Idalia (2023), and Hurricane Ian (2022) also demonstrated rapid intensification.
While more research is needed, the correlation between rising global temperatures and stronger hurricanes is becoming increasingly clear. A 2017 study predicted that as the planet warms, rapid intensification events before landfall will become more frequent and severe.

As the planet enters a new phase of the climate crisis, extreme weather events like Hurricane Milton are expected to become more frequent. A recent assessment by leading climate scientists, published in BioScience, warned of “much more extreme weather” in the coming years, signaling that hurricanes like Milton may be a harbinger of more destructive storms ahead.