Ladakh aurorae validate space weather tracking, scientists say

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Last Updated15/10/2024

Ladakh's recent sightings of aurora, marked by reddish or greenish light in the night sky and usually observed in the far northern regions, is a validation of our efforts in space weather monitoring, a team of astrophysicists that predicted the activity about 48-72 hours prior said.

The recent aurora sightings in Ladakh, marked by intense red or green lights in the night sky, have brought the region into the spotlight for its unusual display of a phenomenon typically observed in far northern regions. These events, according to a team of astrophysicists, are linked to heightened solar activity and serve as a validation of India's advancements in space weather monitoring.

The aurora observed in Ladakh on the night of October 10-11, 2024, is part of a series of auroral sightings, with previous events recorded on May 11, 2024, and November 5 and May 10 of 2023. These aurorae were captured by all-sky cameras stationed at Hanle and Merak by the Bengaluru-based Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA).
The prediction of this aurora, 48-72 hours before it occurred, highlights the successful efforts in monitoring space weather by the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India (CESSI) at IISER Kolkata.
According to Dibyendu Nandi, head of CESSI, these sightings validate their prediction models and enhance confidence in forecasting extreme space weather events, which can have critical consequences for satellite-based services and modern communication systems.

Auroras occur when charged particles from the Sun interact with the Earth's magnetosphere, causing the emission of light. The auroral displays are generally associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), large bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields released into space during solar storms.
These events are most commonly visible in northern regions like Canada, Norway, Finland, and Russia, but recent solar activity has led to auroras being observed in lower-latitude regions like Ladakh, Mexico, and Germany.

The Sun goes through an 11-year cycle of activity, driven by its internal dynamo process, which creates its magnetic field. This activity cycle influences the frequency of solar storms, and we are currently at the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019.
The current cycle's peak activity, higher than that of Solar Cycle 24, has been characterized by a series of solar storms, including the one responsible for the Ladakh aurora.
Nandi's team first flagged the possibility of a severe solar storm on October 7, based on multiple "active" regions in the Sun's magnetic field. Using machine learning models, they predicted the event that eventually unfolded on October 9, leading to the auroral displays seen on October 10-11.

While auroras are breathtaking to behold, they are a manifestation of more serious space weather phenomena. Severe solar storms, like the one responsible for the Ladakh aurora, can cause significant disruptions, including:
- Orbital decay of satellites.
- Communication blackouts.
- Power grid failures.
An extreme solar storm could have even more catastrophic consequences, potentially destroying satellites and causing widespread disruption to services such as telecommunications, navigation, banking, and other critical infrastructure that modern societies depend on.

Whether Solar Cycle 25 has already peaked remains to be seen. Nandi noted that scientists will continue to monitor solar activity for signs of decline, which would be marked by fewer solar storms and aurorae. Until then, the team remains vigilant, as space weather continues to play a crucial role in safeguarding Earth's satellite systems and communications infrastructure.