Korean peninsula heating up again: history of hostility between North and South, trigger for current tensions

Contact Counsellor

Last Updated18/10/2024

Tensions between North and South Korea have simmered for decades, but recent developments have brought the situation to a near-boiling point.
North Korea’s announcement that over 1.4 million citizens have applied to join the army, coupled with the destruction of infrastructure along its southern border, highlights the escalating hostility.
This comes as a direct response to allegations that South Korea sent anti-Pyongyang propaganda across the border using drones.

The roots of the conflict between the two Koreas can be traced back to the end of World War II. After Japan's surrender in 1945, the Korean Peninsula, which had been under Japanese control since 1910, was split between the Soviet-backed North and the American-supported South. In 1950, North Korean forces, led by founder Kim Il Sung, invaded the South, igniting the three-year Korean War.
Despite international intervention, no decisive victory was achieved, and a 1953 armistice created the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). However, no formal peace treaty was ever signed, leaving the two Koreas technically at war for more than 70 years.

Both North and South Korea have long pursued the dream of reunification, with differing visions of how it should be achieved. The high potential human and material costs of an all-out war have, however, largely preserved the status quo.
Over the years, there have been several attempts at negotiating peaceful reunification, with agreements in 2000, 2007, and 2018 marking significant efforts. Unfortunately, tangible progress has been limited, and tensions have resurfaced repeatedly.

A major factor contributing to the ongoing tensions is North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Over the years, Pyongyang has pursued the development of nuclear capabilities, which has resulted in heavy sanctions from the United Nations, the United States, and its allies.
Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough arose when US President Donald Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018 and 2019, becoming the first sitting US president to do so. However, despite the optimism, the talks collapsed, with no significant agreements on denuclearization or sanction relief.

The situation has deteriorated since January 2024, when Kim Jong Un announced that North Korea would no longer seek reunification but instead consider the South its “primary foe”.
Tensions escalated further in July 2024, when North Korea fortified its southern border and began sending balloons carrying trash across the border in retaliation for South Korean activists’ propaganda balloons.
The blowing up of major roads connecting the two countries in October 2024, signaling the formal end of inter-Korean ties, marked a dangerous turning point.

Experts are divided on the possibility of war. While Carlin and Hecker, renowned analysts of North Korean affairs, have described the current situation as “more dangerous than at any time since 1950,” they caution that traditional deterrence strategies may no longer suffice.
North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia and China have emboldened its leadership, reducing its fear of retaliation from South Korea’s US-backed alliance.
Despite this, some analysts remain cautious in predicting an outright conflict. Professor Kang Dong-wan of Dong-a University argues that North Korea’s military provocations are more about internal cohesion than preparation for war. The regime often uses external threats to solidify loyalty among its citizens, especially in times of crisis.

While the recent actions by North Korea are alarming and have heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, they do not necessarily indicate that a full-scale war is imminent. The situation remains delicate, and the risk of miscalculation is ever-present.
However, as long as North Korea continues to exploit military confrontation as a tool for domestic control, the likelihood of a major conflict remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the global community will closely watch the peninsula for further developments.