Indonesia’s palm oil crisis, and its implications for India

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Last Updated09/04/2022

The world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia, is facing domestic shortages, leading to price controls and export curbs.
It’s rare for any country that is the largest producer and exporter of a product to experience domestic shortages of the same product.

An edible vegetable oil derived from the mesocarp of the fruit of the oil palms.
Usage: Food manufacturing, Beauty products, and Biofuel.

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Year 2021-22: Almost 60% of the total global output and way ahead of the next bigger producer: Malaysia (18.7 mt).
It is also the world’s No. 1 exporter of the commodity, at 29 mt, followed by Malaysia (16.22 mt).

Indonesia has seen domestic prices of branded cooking oil spiral, from around 14,000 Indonesian rupiah (IDR) to 22,000 IDR per litre between March 2021 and March 2022.
Much recently, the government imposed a ceiling on retail prices at 14,000 IDR.
This led to the product disappearing from supermarket shelves, amid reports of hoarding and consumers standing in long queues for hours to get a pack or two.

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The possible reason has to do supply disruptions — manmade and natural — in other cooking oils, especially sunflower and soybean.
Ukraine and Russia together account for nearly 80% of the global trade in sunflower oil, quite comparable to the 90% share of Indonesia and Malaysia in palm.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in port closures and exporters avoiding Black Sea shipping routes.
Sanctions against Russia have further curtailed trade in sunflower oil, the world’s third most exported vegetable oil after palm and soybean.

Another factor is linked to petroleum, more specifically the use of palm oil as a biofuel.
The Indonesian government has, since 2020, made 30% blending of diesel with palm oil mandatory as part of a plan to slash fossil fuel imports.
Palm oil getting increasingly diverted for biodiesel is leaving less quantity available, both for the domestic cooking oil and export market.

India is the world’s biggest vegetable oils importer.
Out of its annual imports of 14-15 mt, the major share is of palm oil (8-9 mt), followed by soybean (3-3.5 mt) and sunflower (2.5).
Indonesia has been India’s top supplier of palm oil, though it was overtaken by Malaysia in 2021-22.
The restrictions on exports, even in the form of levy, take into cognizance Indonesia’s higher population (27.5 crores, against Malaysia’s 3.25 crore) as well as its ambitious biofuel program.
To that extent, the world – more so, the bigger importer India – will have to get used to lower supplies from Indonesia.

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