India's demography at crossroads: Elderly may outnumber the youth

• India’s demographic dividend is at an inflection point with share of youth population tapering off and share of elderly is expected to surge during 2021-2036.

Youth in India 2022 report

• Populous states of Bihar and UP are expected to see a decline.
• Kerala, TN and Himachal Pradesh will see higher elderly population than youth by 2036.
• Population under 15 years is projected to decline
• Youth population is expected to increase initially but will decline in latter half of 2011-2036 period.

Effects

• Greater proportion of youth at present will result in greater proportion of elderly in future.
• Demand for better healthcare facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.

UN World Population Prospects

• 2023: India is projected to surpass China as world's most populous country.
• A sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of the population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years).
• This shift in age distribution provides opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the "demographic dividend".

Prelims Take Away

• Demographic Dividend
• UN World Population Prospects
• Youth in India 2022 report