India's Demographic Challenges and the Delayed Census
- Recently, the Finance Minister announced the formation of a high-powered committee to address challenges arising from rapid population growth and demographic changes.
- However, the delay in conducting the decennial Census raises concerns about the lack of direct evidence supporting this statement.
Current Demographic Landscape
- According to the Sample Registration System statistical report in 2020 and the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21), India, now the most populous country, has experienced a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR).
- While the TFR has fallen to 2 overall, specific states such as Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur still exhibit higher TFRs above 2.1.
- The high population growth of the 20th century has been significantly curtailed, with TFR dropping from 5.7 in 1950 to 2 in 2020.
- The population share of the southern States, reduced to 21% in 2011 from 26% in 1951.
- Reason: Rapid reduction in TFR due to better socio-economic outcomes and education, and despite higher migration to these States.
- While the surveys are robust and necessary, they are no substitute for the comprehensive Census.
Demographic Shifts and Opportunities
- India's demographic shift and increased life expectancy present both challenges and opportunities.
- The demographic dividend, characterised by a high proportion of the working-age population, holds meaning only with sufficient job opportunities and social security.
- High unemployment and the slow creation of non-farm jobs pose a risk of squandering this demographic dividend.
Role of the High-Powered Committee
- The high-powered committee is expected to play a crucial role in addressing challenges related to
- Jobs, social security, issues arising from rapid urbanization and mechanization of work etc.
- Its effectiveness hinges on whether it focuses on these critical concerns or gets distracted by issues related to religion and immigration.
- A meaningful engagement in addressing societal challenges is essential for the committee to make a positive impact.