India-Pakistan ties may see ‘diplomatic opening’

• With Shehbaz Sharif set to be the next Pakistan Prime Minister, New Delhi is watching the developments in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore with “cautious optimism” about a headway in bilateral ties.
• The change in regime in Pakistan may offer a “diplomatic opening” and the implications may be far-reaching.
• During his last visit to India in 2013, Shehbaz was very focused and result-oriented in his meetings, and really wanted to build on the ties between the two countries
• He also said that “war is not an option”, and had pitched for the resumption of “peaceful dialogue” on all issues including “Sir Creek, Siachen, water and Kashmir”.

Timeline of Indo-Pak conflict

Attempts for engagement

2014: the then PM Nawaz Sharif invited for swearing-in ceremony of Indian PM 2015: meeting b/w PMs’ in Ufa and External Affairs Minister’s (EAM) visit to Islamabad EAM proposed a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue in December 2015. 2021: Ceasefire agreement signed, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the LoC.

Outstanding issues between India-Pakistan

Jammu and Kashmir issue

• Kashmir one of the most volatile areas in the world
• Both countries have fiercely contested with each other over Kashmir
• Claim of India and Pakistan on Kashmir
• Claims of India: Kashmir entirely belongs to India.
• India views the instrument of accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh as legally binding, hence legally and fairly giving India Kashmir.
• Claims of Pakistan: Kashmir illegitimately ceded to India by a ruler who did not represent its people.
• Since majority of Muslim majority states went to Pakistan, Pakistan believe Kashmir should belong to them.

Siachen dispute and role of NJ9842

• Location: Northern Ladakh in Karakoram range originating from the Pamirs.
• Area: ~ 78 km.
• It is located near the Indo-Pak Line of Control
• It is the highest battlefield of the world.
• Reasons for dispute:
  • NJ9842 : Conflict stems from incompletely demarcated territory on the map beyond coordinate k/a NJ9842 (35.008371°N 77.008805°E)
  • 1949 Karachi Agreement and 1972 Simla Agreement did not clearly mention who controlled the glacier, merely stating that Cease Fire Line (CFL) terminated at NJ9842
  • The UN officials presumed that there would be no dispute b/w India and Pakistan over such a cold and barren region.
• Operation Meghdoot : By India on 13 April 1984.
• India took control of Siachen Glacier, main passes and heights of Saltoro Ridge immediately west of the glacier, including Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La.
• Cease-fire into effect in 2003 - both sides maintain a heavy military presence in the area

River water disputes:

• Both countries have experienced conflicts over sharing of river water

• Indus water treaty was signed in 1960 b/w both nations to resolve this conflict
• Source or flow of all of Pakistan's rivers pass through India first - India has an upper hand in controlling the outflow of these rivers.
• Indian Hydropower projects: Indian Government has more than 40 projects either already completed or in proposal stage on western rivers that have irked Pakistan.
• Disputed projects:
  • Baglihar dam project: at River Chenab; Capacity: 450 MW
  • Pakistan challenged India before the World Bank in 2005 but lost the case.
  • Kishanganga project: Capacity: 330 MW
  • Case is pending at the International Court of Arbitration (ICA) over this project
  • Projects along Chenab River:
  • Pakistan claims these projects violate IWT and impact its water supply.
• In the wake of the Uri attack, Delhi suspended the bi-annual water talks

Sir Creek issue

• It is a 96-km strip of water disputed b/w India and Pakistan

• It opens up in Arabian Sea and roughly divides Kutch region of Gujarat from Sindh Province of Pakistan

• Dispute: maritime boundary line b/w Kutch and Sindh.

• Before independence: Part of the Bombay Presidency of British India.

• After independence: Sindh became a part of Pakistan while Kutch remained a part of India

• Importance:

• Strategic location

• One of the largest fishing grounds of Asia

• Possible presence of great oil and gas concentration under the sea which are currently unexploited

Conclusion

• While the broad signs are positive, the relationship with Pakistan is very unpredictable and it takes just one terror attack or a black swan incident (like the lawyers’ agitation against General Pervez Musharraf) to change the discourse so India should wait and watch every move closely