How can India make a soft landing amid global economic crash?
- The latest official GDP estimates show the economy’s expansion decelerated in the July-September period.
- It was dragged down by year-on-year (y-o-y) and sequential contractions in manufacturing and mining and a broad slowdown in private consumption expenditure and government spending.
Growth trends
- GDP
- Projected to have grown by 6.3% from the year-earlier period.
- A sharp deceleration from the 13.5% expansion posted in the first quarter.
- Gross Value Added (GVA)
- Only three of the eight sectors posted y-o-y accelerations in growth
- agriculture
- services sector
- financial, realty and professional services
- Other sectors posted contractions due to global slowdown, Ukraine war and high domestic inflation.
- Expenditure
- Private consumption spending & government expenditure slowed logging a 9.7% y-o-y expansion.
- Festival-led rebound - 1% growth
Conclusion
- Policymakers can ill-afford to drop their guard as they battle to rein in growth-sapping inflation and must ensure that credit conditions remain supportive of the real economy.
Prelims Takeaway
- GDP
- GVA