Ending the Ukraine war in an imperfect wor
- The Ukraine war which began as a European conflict has global repercussions.
The inevitable conflict
- Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022 in gross violation of UN Charter and international law.
- NATO forgot that cost of its expansion goes up as it gets closer to Russian border.
- 2005: 11 former East European and Baltic states had joined NATO.
- 2008: US pushed for opening membership for Ukraine and Georgia.
- France and Germany blocked a time-frame for implementation.
- Later Russia intervened in Georgia on the grounds of protecting Russian minorities, taking over the neighbouring provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
- 2014: Russia annexed Crimea
- Pro-Russia separatists, assisted by Russian mercenaries, created autonomous regions in eastern Ukraine.
- Post-2014: NATO continued to strengthen its relationship with Ukraine by providing training and equipment.
- 2020: made Ukraine a NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partner.
- 2019: UK entered into a cooperation agreement with Ukraine to develop two new naval ports
- Ochakiv on Black Sea and
- Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov.
- Russia saw it as potentially threatening.
How wars end
- Russia anticipated short, sharp conflict, collapse of Kiev regime , and lack of NATO cohesion.
- It had to readjust its aims as it has been a long and brutal war.
- G-7, EU and NATO have displayed cohesion and Ukrainians have shown grit and motivation.
- Talks are needed, b/w Ukraine and Russia and with NATO and U.S. playing an outsize role behind the scenes to end the crisis.
Conclusion
- Longer the war continues, Greater the suffering for the Ukrainians.
- As Ukraine loses more territory, its bargaining position will be weakened.
- Sooner the war ceases, the better it is for Ukrainians, Russians and the world.