El Nino, other factors to cause warm winter

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates an unusually warm winter season across the country, attributing it to global warming trends.
• November 2023 marked the third warmest November in India since 1901, contributing to the possibility of 2023 becoming the warmest year ever recorded globally.

Factors Influencing Warm Winter

• El Nino Impact
• The ongoing El Nino condition, characterised by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is reaching its peak.
• The Nino 3.4 region is recorded at 2.4 degrees Celsius above the threshold, contributing to the warming trend.

Large-Scale Features

• The Director General of IMD attributes the warm winter to large-scale features like El Nino, along with regional factors such as western disturbances.

Cloudy Conditions and Western Disturbances:

• Cloudy conditions caused by western disturbances are identified as a contributing factor, pushing up minimum temperatures.

Upcoming Cyclone Impact

• The IMD predicts the development of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, causing cloudiness and maintaining above-normal minimum temperatures in southern and eastern coastal India.

Winter Outlook

• Fewer and less intense cold waves are expected during the December to February period, further contributing to the warmth.
• December is likely to see no significant drop in temperatures, except in east and northeast India.

Cyclone "Michaung"

• The impending cyclone "Michaung" in the southwest Bay of Bengal, moving towards southern coastal Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu.
• A "red" alert has been issued by the IMD, warning of extremely heavy rainfall (over 200 mm) on December 3 and 4 in coastal Andhra Pradesh.
• Telangana and southern Odisha are also expected to be affected by the cyclone.

Prelims Takeaway

• Cyclone Michaung