CO2 emissions set to to rise 0.8% this year, India’s contribution to go up by 4.6%

• While countries have congregated in Baku, Azerbaijan to deliberate on the ways to cut carbon emissions, a peer-reviewed report by a scientist collective has found that carbon emissions are set to rise 0.8% in 2024 since last year.

Highlights:

• As nations gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29 to address carbon emission reductions, a recent peer-reviewed report by the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) reveals alarming trends. While emissions are growing slower in 2024 (0.8%) compared to 2023 (1.2%), the world is far from achieving the goals set under the Paris Agreement.

Key Findings of the Report

Global Carbon Emissions Overview

• 2023 Contributions:
  • China: 31% (12 billion tonnes CO₂).
  • United States: 13% (4.9 billion tonnes, a 0.6% decrease).
  • India: 8% (3.2 billion tonnes, a 4.6% increase).
  • EU-27: 7%.
  • Rest of the world: 41%.
• Per-Capita Fossil CO₂ Emissions (2023):
  • U.S.: 3.9 tonnes per person.
  • China: 2.3 tonnes per person.
  • EU-27: 1.5 tonnes per person.
  • India: 0.6 tonnes per person.

Sector-Wise Emission Trends:

• Coal, Oil, and Gas Emissions (2024): Expected to rise by 0.2%, 0.9%, and 2.4% respectively.
• Land-Use Emissions (LULUCF): Average annual emissions are 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon.

Atmospheric CO₂ Levels

• CO₂ concentration in 2024 is expected to reach 422.5 ppm, a 52% increase from pre-industrial levels.

Challenges to Climate Goals

1. Paris Agreement Targets Under Threat

• Temperature Thresholds:
  • Global mean temperatures surpassed the 1.5°C mark in January 2024 (12-month average).
  • A 50% chance remains that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted in six years.
• The Paris Agreement urges limiting temperature rise to below 2°C and striving for 1.5°C. However, global emissions continue to rise, jeopardizing these targets.

2. Pessimism Around Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs):

• Many nations’ voluntary climate pledges align with the 1.5°C pathway on paper but lack effective implementation.

3. Professor Friedlingstein's Warning:

• Fossil fuel burning shows no signs of peaking despite intensifying climate change impacts.
• Rapid and deep cuts in emissions are critical to averting catastrophic warming.

Implications and Recommendations

Global Carbon Budget’s Call to Action:

• Urgent and ambitious emission reductions are essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
• COP29 must prioritize:
  • Decarbonization of energy systems.
  • Strengthening global accountability mechanisms for NDCs.

India’s Role:

• With its rising emissions, India must balance growth with sustainability by reducing its dependency on coal and focusing on clean energy transitions.

Broader Climate Action:

• Governments worldwide must:
  • Accelerate investment in renewable energy.
  • Reform land-use policies to enhance carbon sequestration.
  • Enforce stricter compliance with climate pledges.

Prelims Takeaways

• Global Carbon Budget (GCB)