Brent at 7 years high: how are market, economy and investors impacted

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Brent at 7 years high: how are market, economy and investors impacted

  • Oil prices are at their highest levels since 2014,Brent crude hit $88.3 per barrel on Thursday, up 27% since December 1, when it was trading at $69.5.
  • Brent has spiked 8 per cent over the past week, rocking stock markets that were otherwise relatively steady in spite of the third wave of Covid-19 across the country.
  • Over the last six trading sessions, the benchmark Sensex at the BSE has lost 1,771 points (2.9%) over fresh concerns around inflation, current account deficit, fiscal deficit, and even the currency.

Reasons for rise in Crude oil prices

  • Supply side disruptions: caused by attack on fuel trucks in Abu Dhabi by Yemen’s Houthis , tensions between Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, and Ukraine and the outage on Iraq-Turkey pipeline
  • Growing imbalance between demand and supply: the former did not see the moderation that was initially expected as the Omicron wave began.
  • The key oil producing countries have kept supply on a gradually increasing schedule in spite of the sharp increase in global crude prices.

Impact on Indian economy

  • The rise in crude prices poses inflationary, fiscal, and external sector risks.
  • Crude oil-related products have a direct share of over 9% in the WPI basket and, according to a report by Bank of Baroda chief economist, a 10% increase in crude would lead to an increase of around 0.9% in WPI inflation.
  • Rising oil prices will impact the current account deficit which is the difference between the values of goods and services imported and exported.
  • The rise in crude oil prices is also expected to increase the subsidy on LPG and kerosene, pushing up the subsidy bill.

Impact on Consumers

  • Higher crude prices can result in higher fuel prices for consumers

Impact on investor sentiment and markets

  • Investor sentiment has taken a beating over the last few days in line with rising crude prices.
  • FPI: Foreign portfolio investors who had invested a net of Rs 3,950 crore until January 11, have turned net sellers over the last seven trading sessions, pulling out a net of Rs 12,825 crore from Indian equities, leading to a fall of nearly 3% in the Sensex.
  • Domestic institutional investment has also fallen from Rs 6,919 crore between January 1 and 14, to only Rs 239 crore over the last four trading sessions.
  • The rupee has fallen nearly 1% against the dollar over the last week