Analysing U.S.-China bilateral ties
- U.S.-China relations have witnessed an unprecedented downturn in 2022 with the recent visit of Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Taiwan.
- Amid this escalation, the U.S. and Chinese President had their first in-person interaction at G-20 summit in Bali, signaling a relaxation of growing tensions.
Reasons for deterioration of relations between U.S. and China
- Undermining of U.S. global dominance by China: through military & diplomatic means.
- Quest for Chinese primacy on the world stage: further irked US to critical levels.
- Imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports: turned into a “trade war” which started to reverse the trajectory of U.S.-China relations.
- China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy”: during the COVID-19 blame game
- China’s evident support to Russia: during the Ukraine crisis
- China’s escalating offensive posturing towards Taiwan
- US sabotaging One China Policy: following the U.S. House of Representatives visit to Taiwan.
- China’s drive to gain technological dominance: over the U.S in 4th Industrial Revolution.
- Restriction on China’s semiconductor chip industry: by the U.S.
Future of US - China
| US’ stand | China’s stand |
|---|---|
| * Intensifying rivalry with China by expanding it beyond trade and into avenues like technology and political freedoms. | * China firm on its path to attain its long term goal of centrality in the international system. |
| * Utilized multilateral approaches like strengthening the Quad in the Indo-Pacific, and the founding of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. | * China’s time bound aspiration to achieve such a goal through phased modernisation of the country. |
| * Three-pillar approach towards China — “invest, align, compete”. | * China’s stand on reunification of Taiwan with the mainland |
| * Intent to deal with the threat posed by China without sliding into an inadvertent conflict. | * China’s efforts to project rather than conceal its capabilities. |
Conclusion
- Thus, the long-term trajectories of both countries do not seem to be poised for a reset; rather, both seem to be buying time and reducing unnecessary risks while the strategic rivalry unfolds.