A three-tier war in West Asia with no endgame

• In October 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan observed that the Middle East (or West Asia) seemed "quieter than it has been for decades," largely due to the Abraham Accords and warming relations between Israel and some Arab nations.
• However, just days after his essay in Foreign Affairs was published, Hamas launched its deadliest attack on Israel, shattering any illusion of stability in the region and marking the beginning of a new, deadly phase in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

The Fragility of the New Regional Order:

• The Abraham Accords of 2020, signed between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, signaled a new era of Arab-Israel cooperation, with Saudi Arabia even on the verge of normalizing ties with Israel.
• At the same time, the U.S. pushed for a realignment in West Asia, hoping to unite Sunni Arab nations and Israel against common foes like Iran. Yet, the overlooked issue was Palestine. Both Israel and the Arab nations seemed to believe that the Palestinian cause had lost relevance, as their strategic interests grew closer.
• However, Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, upended this precarious balance. Hamas aimed to disrupt Israel's growing ties with Arab nations, demonstrating that peace and stability in the region are impossible without addressing the Palestinian question.

Dueling Narratives:

• From Israel’s perspective, the situation has transformed into an "existential war" against terrorism. Previously, Palestinian violence was treated as a security nuisance, but the large-scale attack by Hamas inside Israel proper — the deadliest since 1948 — reframed the conflict.
• Now, Israel is pursuing an aggressive military campaign to destroy Hamas and safeguard its citizens, leading to the deaths of over 41,000 Palestinians and the displacement of nearly 2.3 million in Gaza.
• The Palestinian narrative, on the other hand, points to the continuing Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories as the root cause of the violence. Hamas’s attack was a violent response to what it views as decades of occupation, exploitation, and disregard for the Palestinian people's rights.

The Three-Tier War

• The conflict has expanded beyond Gaza, turning into a three-tier war for Israel:
• Gaza: Israel seeks to destroy Hamas and rescue the hostages, though it has not achieved either objective after a year of fighting.
• Lebanon: Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese militia backed by Iran, opened a northern front, forcing Israel to fight on two fronts. Israel aims to push Hezbollah away from its border and halt rocket attacks.
• Iran: Israel’s larger strategic goal is to weaken Iran, which it views as the "head of the octopus" controlling its militant proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and others across the region.
• Israel has already launched attacks on Iranian targets in Damascus and is preparing for possible further escalations. But the question remains:
• Can Israel achieve its goals? While Israel has successfully targeted Hezbollah leadership, including the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s operational capabilities remain intact, with continued rocket attacks into Israel.

The Iran Dilemma:

• Iran’s involvement further complicates the conflict. Israel has a history of pinpointed strikes within Iran, but escalating direct military action risks triggering a larger, potentially uncontrollable regional war. This could have profound consequences, including a possible shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine, heightening the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Challenges of Israel's Strategy:

• History shows that decapitating leadership often fails to destroy militant groups. Despite the killings of key leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, both organizations have continued to grow and adapt.
• If Israel’s ground invasion in Lebanon and its military campaigns in Gaza have not yet neutralized these groups, it is unclear whether expanded efforts will succeed.

Conclusion:

• Israel’s strategy to reshape West Asia through military escalation faces significant obstacles. Hamas and Hezbollah remain potent forces, and Iran’s influence in the region is far from diminished.
• For long-term peace, the root causes of the conflict, particularly the Palestinian question, must be addressed. Until then, Israel's attempts to reshape the region in its favor may, like previous efforts by external powers, prove unsustainable in the long run.