India's population growth rate on a steady decline since 1990s

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Last Updated22/04/2023

India may be on track to become the world’s most populous country, but its population growth has been slowing.
According to the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), India’s population in 2021 stood at 1,393.4 million with an average annual rate of change of population of 1%.
But India’s Census figures show that its population is on steady decline

India’s annual population growth rate was 1.3% in 1951, which increased to 2% in 1961.
Over the next 30 years, from 1971-91, India’s annual population growth rate remained at a steady 2.2% and started to decline in the 1990s.
In 2011, India’s growth rate was 1.6%.
According to census 2011, the median age in India was 24.9.
In 2022, according to World Population Projections, India’s median age was 28.7, making it a young country.
India’s absolute numbers, however, continued to remain high because of a “population momentum”.

It occurs when there is a very large young population in a country.
These young people will want to have children
Therefore, there is an increase in the population even when the growth rate itself may be on the decline.
This occurs when a demographic transition is underway, like in India’s case.
This momentum is projected to carry on for the next three decades.

According to some projects, India’s population will peak in 2048, after which it will start declining.
Projections also say that India will have a population of 1.1 billion in 2100, which is much less than what it is today.
The UN has projected that India’s population will peak in 2053

The Population Foundation of India (PFI) has pointed out that the only way to slow down the momentum is to delay the age of marriage, delay the first pregnancy and ensure spacing between births.