A West Asia under Donald Trump

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Last Updated08/11/2024

Biden’s Initial Approach: Biden's administration was initially confident about West Asia policy, especially regarding the normalization of ties between Israel and Arab nations, initiated by Donald Trump's Abraham Accords (2020).
October 7, 2023 Attack: Hamas launched an attack on Israel, prompting a retaliatory Israeli assault on Gaza. Biden immediately offered full support to Israel, marking the beginning of a protracted conflict.
Two-Pronged Strategy: Biden's approach involved supporting Israel's military actions while simultaneously engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating into a regional war.
Outcome: Over a year, the war caused over 43,000 Palestinian deaths. The conflict also expanded into Lebanon and ignited tensions between Israel and Iran, undermining Biden’s diplomatic efforts and weakening America's regional influence.

Accusations of Complicity: Biden faced severe criticism for not exerting enough pressure on Israel to halt its actions in Gaza. He was accused of being complicit in Israel's actions, which some critics labeled as "genocide."
Failed Diplomacy: Despite efforts to limit the war’s impact on broader West Asian stability, Biden’s strategy proved ineffectual, leading to a more entrenched and violent conflict.
Growing U.S. Involvement: The widening war pulled the U.S. deeper into West Asia, straining its resources and further complicating its global position.

Strong Israel Support: Trump is staunchly pro-Israel and has historically supported Israel’s military actions. His first presidency saw significant moves such as:
U.S. Embassy Move to Jerusalem: A symbolic gesture in favor of Israel.
Recognition of Golan Heights Annexation: Trump recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, which was previously considered illegal under international law.
Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal: Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, despite UN certification that Iran complied with the agreement.

Israel’s Disproportionate Wars: Like Biden, Trump would face the challenge of supporting Israel's war efforts while preventing a larger regional conflict.
Pro-Israel Stance: Trump’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah could aggravate the situation, especially as he may not put pressure on Israel to scale back its military actions.
Growing Regional Instability: Israel’s ongoing conflicts, especially in Gaza and Lebanon, risk destabilizing the broader region. The U.S., under Trump, may become more deeply embroiled in these conflicts, further damaging its credibility and strategic interests in the region.

Base Opposition to Foreign Wars: Trump's political base is opposed to U.S. military involvement in West Asia’s "forever wars." His vice-presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, has criticized the 2003 Iraq war and U.S. interventions in the region.
Avoiding a War with Iran: Trump is likely to avoid a direct military confrontation with Iran, focusing instead on addressing China's growing influence as a strategic priority.
Energy and Inflation Concerns: A wider war in the region, especially involving Iran, could disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher oil prices and inflation, which would hurt Trump's domestic policy goals of addressing the cost of living crisis.

Restoring America's Leadership: Trump will inherit a fractured West Asia, where U.S. influence has been eroded by Israel's unchecked military actions. Despite this, America remains a key player, and its Arab allies still rely on U.S. leadership.
Balancing Support for Israel with Regional Stability: While Trump’s administration will likely continue to support Israel, he must avoid getting further entangled in a multi-front war that damages U.S. strategic interests.
Diplomatic Challenges: If Trump sticks to his pro-Israel impulses and fails to mediate in the Gaza conflict, he risks exacerbating tensions in the region. If he takes a more diplomatic route to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, he might restore some stability and repair the U.S.’s tarnished reputation in West Asia.